| Democratic Backsliding Index 2026 data from two independent research groups show nearly a quarter of the world’s countries slipping toward autocracy, with the global average level of democracy now back where it stood in 1978. This guide breaks down how many countries are affected, which specific indicators researchers actually measure, which democracies are weakening the fastest, and which countries are moving the other way. Universalnest tracks shifts like these as part of its ongoing Current Affairs coverage of global governance. |
How Many Countries Are Backsliding in 2026? The V-Dem and Freedom House Numbers
Two separate research institutes, the V-Dem Institute and Freedom House, independently reached the same conclusion for 2025: democratic decline has now reached a record or near-record scale.
| Source | Key 2025 Finding |
| V-Dem Democracy Report 2026 | 44 countries currently autocratizing, home to 41% of world population, a record high |
| V-Dem Democracy Report 2026 | 92 autocracies versus 87 democracies among 179 countries assessed |
| V-Dem Democracy Report 2026 | Global average democracy level has fallen back to 1978 levels |
| Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 | Global freedom declined for the 20th consecutive year |
| Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 | 54 countries deteriorated, only 35 improved |
The V-Dem Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg, produces the largest global dataset on democracy, covering more than 200 countries and over 600 indicators since 1789. Its 2026 report, titled Unraveling the Democratic Era, found that the number of autocracies rose from 91 to 92 in 2025 while the number of democracies fell from 88 to 87, marking the second consecutive year that autocracies have outnumbered democracies worldwide. Freedom House, which scores 194 countries and 13 territories across 25 separate indicators, reported the same underlying trend from an independent methodology, noting the decline now affects more than 40 percent of the global population.
What Indicators Actually Measure Democratic Backsliding
Democratic backsliding is measured through specific, named components rather than a single overall score, and freedom of expression stands out as the most affected indicator worldwide.
| Indicator | What It Tracks | Source |
| Freedom of expression | Most drastic global decline; most common target of autocratizing leaders over 25 years | V-Dem |
| Rule of law and checks and balances | Second most common target; covers limits on executive power abuse | V-Dem |
| Media freedom | Among the freedoms most affected over the past two decades | Freedom House |
| Due process | Among the freedoms most affected over the past two decades | Freedom House |
| Political rights and civil liberties | Scored 0 to 4 across 25 indicators, aggregated to a 100-point scale | Freedom House |
These indicators matter because they separate genuine democratic erosion from ordinary political change. A government losing an election is not backsliding. Both indices are built to detect a government using media restrictions, weakened judicial independence, or eroded checks and balances to entrench its power against future electoral loss. V-Dem researchers specifically identify attacks on freedom of expression as the leading edge of the current wave, since restricting what journalists and citizens can report typically precedes more serious institutional damage.
Which Democracies Are Weakening the Most in 2026
The United States recorded the most severe single decline identified in the 2026 assessment cycle, losing its status as a liberal democracy for the first time in more than 50 years, according to V-Dem researchers.
| Country | Finding | Source |
| United States | Lost liberal democracy status, now classified as an electoral democracy; largest decline among Freedom House’s “Free” countries | V-Dem, Freedom House |
| Italy | Named among the 10 new autocratizing countries for 2025 | V-Dem |
| United Kingdom | Named among the 10 new autocratizing countries for 2025 | V-Dem |
| Bulgaria | Among the largest declines recorded among Freedom House’s “Free” countries | Freedom House |
| Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, Burkina Faso | Among the largest overall one-year score declines globally | Freedom House |
Six of the ten newly identified autocratizing countries in the 2026 V-Dem report are located in Europe and North America, a detail the report’s authors describe as especially significant, since these countries carry enough economic and political weight to reshape international organizations and global norms. V-Dem researchers point to the 2026 US midterm elections as a specific test case, noting that a further decline in election quality indicators would push the country’s score even lower. This pattern connects directly to the electoral gains covered in our earlier reporting on how far-right parties won power across 12 countries between 2022 and 2026, since several of the same countries appear in both datasets.
What Is Driving the 2026 Decline in Democratic Quality
Both research institutes identify a consistent set of drivers behind the current wave of democratic backsliding, rather than a single isolated cause.
Freedom House names coups, armed conflict, and attacks on democratic institutions by elected political leaders as the primary forces behind the 20-year decline streak, alongside growing repression in already authoritarian states. V-Dem’s researchers add polarization and disinformation as compounding factors, noting that these pressures tend to fuel each other; weakened media freedom makes disinformation harder to counter, and disinformation in turn deepens polarization that autocratizing leaders can exploit. Self-coups, where an elected leader uses their own office to dismantle democratic checks rather than being removed by an external force, represent one of the more severe patterns identified within this broader driver set.
The Countries Moving the Other Way – 2026’s Democratizers
Not every country moved in the same direction in 2025, and both indices identify a smaller but genuine group of democratizing nations working against the broader global trend.
| Country or Group | Detail | Source |
| 18 countries overall (10% of countries assessed) | Currently democratizing according to V-Dem | V-Dem |
| Brazil, Poland | Large countries continuing established democratization processes | V-Dem |
| Botswana, Guatemala, Mauritius | New democratizing countries identified in 2025 data | V-Dem |
| Bolivia, Fiji, Malawi | Upgraded from Partly Free to Free status | Freedom House |
Freedom House notes that of the 87 countries rated Free in 2005, more than 85 percent have remained Free throughout the two-decade period of global decline, evidence that established democratic systems retain some capacity for course correction even under sustained pressure. In most of the newly democratizing countries identified by V-Dem, media freedom specifically has improved, the same indicator most commonly targeted where backsliding is occurring, reinforcing how central that single measured component is to the overall picture in both directions.
Democratic Backsliding Index 2026: Two Independent Assessments Confirm a Historic Decline
Two independently produced 2026 assessments arrive at the same conclusion from different methodologies: global democracy has fallen to a scale not seen in decades, measured through specific indicators like freedom of expression, rule of law, and media freedom rather than broad impressions. A smaller group of democratizing countries shows the trend is not universal. For continued coverage of how these shifts connect to elections, alliances, and global institutions, explore the full Current Affairs section on Universalnest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is democratic backsliding?
Democratic backsliding is the gradual weakening of democratic institutions, such as free elections, judicial independence, and press freedom, by governments still formally in power, distinguishing it from a sudden coup or complete collapse of democratic government.
Is the United States still classified as a democracy?
Yes, but at a lower classification. The V-Dem Institute’s 2026 report moved the United States from liberal democracy to electoral democracy, the first such downgrade for the country in more than five decades, based on declining rule of law and checks and balances indicators.
What is the difference between an electoral democracy and a liberal democracy?
An electoral democracy holds competitive elections but may lack strong protections for rule of law, civil liberties, or checks on executive power. A liberal democracy combines competitive elections with those additional protections, which is the category the United States has now exited.
Which indicator has declined the most globally?
Freedom of expression has shown the most drastic global decline according to V-Dem researchers, identified as the single most common target among autocratizing leaders worldwide over the past 25 years, ahead of rule of law and checks and balances.
Are more countries becoming democracies or autocracies right now?
Autocracies currently outnumber democracies for the second consecutive year, with 92 autocracies against 87 democracies among 179 countries assessed by V-Dem in 2025, while a smaller group of 18 countries continues to democratize.
What is the third wave of autocratization?
The third wave of autocratization is the term V-Dem researchers use for the current, ongoing global period of democratic decline, distinct from earlier historical waves, and one that has now reversed most of the democratic gains made since the mid 1970s.
