| The Iran-Israel shadow war is a conflict spanning more than 40 years in which Iran used proxy forces across Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, and Iraq to attack Israeli and US targets while maintaining official non-belligerency. Iran broke that pattern on April 13, 2024, launching 300+ projectiles at Israel directly in Operation True Promise, the first-ever direct attack from Iranian soil on Israeli territory. By 2026, the conflict had escalated to a direct Iran-Israel-US war following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. Iran’s nuclear stockpile of 440.9 kg of 60%-enriched uranium, verified by the IAEA before June 2025 strikes, is now unverifiable following a near-total IAEA monitoring blackout that began in March 2026. |
The Iran-Israel shadow war is a covert conflict that operated through proxies, assassinations, and sabotage for more than 40 years before escalating to direct military exchanges in April 2024 and a full-scale Iran-Israel-US war in 2026. This record, maintained by Universalnest as part of its War and Conflict coverage, traces the full arc: the construction of the Axis of Resistance, how Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack activated every proxy simultaneously, the direct exchanges of 2024, Israel’s systematic elimination of Axis leadership, Operation Epic Fury that killed Khamenei in 2026, and the current status of Iran’s nuclear program after IAEA monitoring collapsed.
Iran-Israel Shadow War: Four Decades of Covert Conflict Before the First Direct Strike
The Iran-Israel shadow war is a four-decade conflict beginning in 1979 when Iran’s Islamic Revolution defined Israel as a primary adversary, conducted through proxy forces, intelligence operations, cyber attacks, and targeted assassinations until April 13, 2024, when Iran launched more than 300 projectiles at Israeli territory from Iranian soil, ending more than 40 years of official non-belligerency.
Iran’s core strategy from 1979 onward was built on what strategists call “forward defense”: fight Israel and the United States as far from Iranian territory as possible, through non-state armed groups that provide plausible deniability and preserve Iran’s ability to deny direct responsibility. Following Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, Iran used the conflict to build Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militant and political organisation that would become its most capable and durable proxy force.
Over the following decades, the shadow war operated on multiple simultaneous tracks. Israel assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists, conducted cyber operations against Iranian centrifuges at Natanz (Stuxnet, 2010), and killed IRGC officers in Syria. Iran funded and armed Hezbollah with over 150,000 rockets, provided weapons and training to Hamas, and orchestrated assassination operations against Israeli citizens abroad. Neither side acknowledged confrontation. The conflict was real, persistent, and lethal on both sides, yet formally invisible at the state level.
The shadow broke on April 13, 2024, when Iran chose direct over covert. Everything that followed traces to that decision.
Iran’s Proxy Network: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and the Iraqi Militias of the Axis of Resistance
Iran’s Axis of Resistance is a network of four primary non-state armed groups, funded, armed, and coordinated through the IRGC’s Quds Force, that has allowed Iran to attack Israeli and US targets across the Middle East while maintaining official non-belligerency: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces and affiliated militias.
The Quds Force is the IRGC’s extraterritorial operations division, responsible for all proxy coordination, weapons delivery, and strategic direction across the Axis. The Quds Force commander for Lebanon and Syria was General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who had personally overseen Hezbollah’s weapons buildup for years before Israel killed him in a building adjacent to the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, 2024.
Hezbollah, founded in 1982 with direct Iranian backing during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon, became Iran’s most capable proxy with over 150,000 rockets before the 2024 Lebanon war and an estimated 50,000 trained fighters. For Iran, Hezbollah served a dual function: a strategic deterrent against Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, and a forward base for pressure on northern Israel.
Hamas is ideologically distinct from Iran, as a Sunni Islamist organisation versus Iran’s Shia government, but has received Iranian weapons, financing, and technical training for decades because of shared strategic interest in opposing Israel. The Houthis in Yemen began attacking Red Sea shipping and launching missiles and drones toward Israel from November 2023, and resumed those attacks on March 28, 2026, after joining the 2026 Iran war. Iraqi militias, including Kata’ib Hezbollah, conducted more than 160 attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria following October 7, 2023.
| Group | Base | Founded | Iran Support Type | 2026 Status |
| Hezbollah | Lebanon | 1982 | Weapons, financing, training, strategic direction | Severely degraded; Nasrallah killed September 2024; ceasefire November 2024 |
| Hamas | Gaza | 1987 | Weapons, financing, technical training | Senior leadership systematically eliminated 2024-2025 |
| Houthis (Ansar Allah) | Yemen | 1990s | Weapons, missiles, intelligence | Resumed Israel strikes March 28, 2026 |
| Iraqi PMF / Kata’ib Hezbollah | Iraq | 2014 | Weapons, financing, coordination | 160+ attacks on US bases post-October 7; largely stood down in 2026 |
October 7, 2023 and the Acceleration: How Hamas’s Attack Activated the Full Proxy Network
The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, which killed approximately 1,200 people, took 251 hostages, and launched more than 3,000 rockets in the opening hours, activated every component of the Axis of Resistance simultaneously for the first time in its history, accelerating the Iran-Israel conflict from managed low-intensity shadow war to a multi-front confrontation within weeks.
US and Israeli intelligence agencies found no direct evidence that Iran ordered the October 7 attack. Iran publicly praised it afterward. The distinction carries legal and strategic weight: operational direction constitutes an act of war, while endorsement after the fact carries a different threshold under international law.
The activation of each Axis component was rapid. Hezbollah began daily cross-border fire from southern Lebanon within 24 hours, framing it as a solidarity campaign. The Houthis began attacking Red Sea shipping in November 2023 and launched ballistic missiles and drones toward Israeli territory from December onward. Iraqi militias affiliated with the Iranian Quds Force conducted more than 160 attacks on US military installations in Syria and Iraq through early 2024.
October 7 simultaneously began the countdown to the Axis’s structural degradation. Israel used the Gaza campaign as strategic cover to systematically eliminate the Axis leadership. The direct trigger for Iran’s first-ever direct strike on Israel was Israel’s April 1, 2024 assassination of General Zahedi in Damascus, killing him and six senior aides in a meeting adjacent to the Iranian consulate.
Direct Missile Exchanges: Operation True Promise, the October 2024 Ballistic Barrage, and Israel’s Retaliatory Strikes
The Iran-Israel conflict crossed into open direct military exchange on April 13, 2024, when Iran launched Operation True Promise, comprising 300+ projectiles including 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles at Israeli military bases, marking the largest drone attack launched by any state in history and the first direct military strike by Iran on Israeli territory from Iranian soil in more than 40 years of conflict.
Operation True Promise (April 13-14, 2024):
Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan combined air defense systems to intercept more than 99% of the projectiles before they reached their targets. Iran declared the matter “concluded.” Israel’s limited retaliatory strike on April 19 targeted air defense radar systems near Isfahan, calibrated to demonstrate Israeli reach into Iran without triggering broader escalation.
Operation True Promise II (October 1, 2024):
Iran’s second direct barrage followed Israel’s elimination of Nasrallah, Haniyeh, and multiple senior leaders across the Axis. The October 1 attack included approximately 180 ballistic missiles, among them advanced Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles. A portion of missiles reached target areas in central Israel before interception. Israel’s retaliatory strikes on October 25-26 hit Iranian air defense systems and military infrastructure, significantly degrading Iran’s capacity to intercept future Israeli aircraft.
Those October 2024 Israeli strikes on Iran’s air defenses proved strategically decisive: by removing Iran’s capacity to repel incoming strike packages, they cleared the path for the June 2025 US-Israeli nuclear facility strikes and the February 2026 Operation Epic Fury.
| Date | Operation | Actor | Scale | Outcome |
| April 1, 2024 | Strike on consulate, Damascus | Israel | Killed Gen. Zahedi and 6 aides | Triggered Operation True Promise |
| April 13-14, 2024 | Operation True Promise | Iran | 300+ drones, missiles, cruise missiles | 99%+ intercepted; limited damage |
| April 19, 2024 | Limited Israeli retaliation | Israel | Air defense radar strike near Isfahan | Signalled Israeli reach into Iran |
| October 1, 2024 | Operation True Promise II | Iran | 180+ ballistic missiles incl. Fattah-1 | Partly intercepted; some reached targets |
| October 25-26, 2024 | Major Israeli retaliation | Israel | Strikes on Iranian air defense systems | Significantly degraded Iranian air defense |
| June 2025 | Nuclear facility strikes | US and Israel | Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan targeted | IAEA access suspended; stockpile unverifiable |
| February 28, 2026 | Operation Epic Fury | US and Israel | Killed Supreme Leader Khamenei | 2026 Iran war; Hormuz closure triggered |
Israel’s Decapitation Campaign and Operation Epic Fury: From Zahedi to Nasrallah to Khamenei
Between April 2024 and February 2026, Israel and the United States systematically eliminated the Axis of Resistance’s senior leadership, killing IRGC Quds Force commander Zahedi in Damascus in April 2024, Hamas political chief Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024, Hezbollah Secretary-General Nasrallah in Beirut in September 2024, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the US-Israeli Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026.
The assassination timeline:
- April 1, 2024: General Zahedi (IRGC Quds Force, Lebanon and Syria operations) killed in Damascus
- July 31, 2024: Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas political leader) killed by a bomb inside a protected guesthouse in Tehran, assassinated in Iran’s own capital
- September 17-18, 2024: Israel’s supply-chain pager and walkie-talkie operation killed and wounded Hezbollah senior operatives across Lebanon simultaneously
- September 2024: Hassan Nasrallah (Hezbollah Secretary-General) killed in Beirut by Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah’s headquarters
- October 2024: Yahya Sinwar (Hamas Gaza chief) killed in Rafah
- May 2025: Mohammed Sinwar (Hamas military leader) killed in Gaza tunnels
Structural consequences:
The Belfer Center identified Nasrallah’s killing as the event that “exposed Iran to the current air campaign” by removing its primary deterrent against Israeli strikes. The collapse of Assad’s Syrian government in December 2024 closed the land corridor Iran used to supply Hezbollah with weapons. The AEI assessed in January 2026 that Iranian proxies are “either unable or unwilling to support Iran in any serious way” during the 2026 conflict.
Operation Epic Fury, launched jointly by the US and Israel on February 28, 2026, killed Khamenei and directly triggered the Strait of Hormuz closure, the full 2026 Iran war, and the Houthi resumption of strikes on Israel from March 28.
The proxy war architecture in the Iran-Israel conflict connects structurally to how external state backing has shaped other active conflicts. The Sudan Civil War’s full history of SAF-RSF conflict and proxy involvement from the UAE, Egypt, and regional powers demonstrates the same pattern of third-party actors sustaining armed factions beyond their organic capacity. The nuclear escalation dimension connects through the 2025 India-Pakistan nuclear standoff and its 172-vs-170 warhead escalation framework.
Iran’s Nuclear Program in 2026: 440.9 kg of 60%-Enriched Uranium and Near-Total IAEA Monitoring Loss
Iran’s nuclear program entered 2026 holding 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60% U-235, verified by the IAEA on June 13, 2025, a stockpile sufficient to produce material for 5-6 nuclear weapons if further enriched to the 90% weapons-grade threshold, with breakout time compressed to an estimated 2-4 weeks, and IAEA inspectors locked out of every Iranian nuclear facility since March 2026.
Why 60% enrichment matters:
Nuclear power reactors use uranium enriched to 3-5%. Weapons-grade material requires 90% highly enriched uranium. Moving from 60% to 90% requires only approximately 15-20% of the total separative work units needed from natural uranium to 90%. Iran’s 440.9 kg stockpile represents the vast majority of the technical work toward weapons-grade material already completed. The Arms Control Association confirmed that by late 2024, Iran could produce material for 5-6 weapons in under two weeks. Iran operates 1,419 IR-6 centrifuges at the underground Fordow facility, 10 times faster than the IR-1 models that were the basis of the 2015 JCPOA restrictions.
The monitoring collapse:
The IAEA’s June 2026 report, analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security, confirmed near-total monitoring loss: cameras at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan are offline; inspectors have had no physical access since March 2026; the IAEA stated it “cannot provide any information on the current size, composition or whereabouts of the stockpile of enriched uranium in Iran.” On March 15, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi offered to dilute the enriched uranium stockpile in negotiations, confirming the stockpile’s continued political relevance even as its physical location remained unknown.
Iran-Israel Conflict in 2026: The Post-War Landscape
The Iran-Israel conflict in 2026 has moved beyond the shadow war framework into a post-direct-war landscape in which Iran’s Axis of Resistance is severely degraded, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in June 2026, and the location and status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remain the single most significant unresolved question in Middle East security.
Iran’s proxies have been substantially reduced in operational capacity: Hezbollah suffered devastating losses in 2024; Hamas’s senior leadership was eliminated between 2024 and 2025; the Houthis remain active but operate without the strategic coordination that Nasrallah and Zahedi previously provided. The Syrian land corridor that supplied Hezbollah closed following Assad’s December 2024 fall.
The nuclear uncertainty is the conflict’s unresolved core. Even with weapons-grade material available, full weaponization requires an additional 12-18 months for component fabrication, implosion design, and missile integration. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman publicly stated that Saudi Arabia would pursue nuclear capability if Iran achieves a weapon, signalling the regional proliferation risk from the current monitoring gap.
Universalnest tracks the Iran-Israel shadow war and its nuclear dimension within its Current Affairs coverage of global politics, war, economy, climate, and the events shaping 2026. For nuclear data, the Arms Control Association’s Iran nuclear program factsheet and the ISIS-online June 2026 analysis of IAEA Iran verification are the primary institutional sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Axis of Resistance and who funds it?
The Axis of Resistance is Iran’s network of non-state armed groups: Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces. Iran funds, arms, and provides strategic direction through the IRGC’s Quds Force, while each group maintains a degree of operational independence suited to its local theatre and political context.
Did Iran directly order Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack?
US and Israeli intelligence found no direct evidence that Iran ordered the October 7 attack. Iran publicly praised it afterward. The distinction carries legal weight: operational direction constitutes an act of war, while endorsement after the fact carries a different threshold under international law and state responsibility doctrine.
What was Israel’s response to Operation True Promise?
Israel conducted a limited retaliatory strike on April 19, 2024, targeting air defense radar near Isfahan to signal Israeli reach into Iran. A much larger Israeli strike on October 25-26, 2024 destroyed substantial Iranian air defense infrastructure following Iran’s second ballistic missile barrage on October 1.
How did the September 2024 Hezbollah pager attack work?
Israel reportedly compromised a batch of Hezbollah’s communications devices before delivery, embedding explosive material inside them. On September 17, 2024, thousands of pagers detonated simultaneously across Lebanon, killing and wounding senior Hezbollah operatives who had switched to pagers believing them immune to Israeli electronic interception and surveillance.
What is Iran’s nuclear breakout time in 2026?
Before the June 2025 strikes, Iran’s estimated breakout time for weapons-grade uranium was 2-4 weeks, down from 12 months in 2021, a 97% compression in warning time. Post-strike status is currently unknown; the IAEA has had no monitoring access since March 2026 and cannot verify the current stockpile size or location.
What happened to Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025?
Israel and the United States struck Iran’s primary nuclear facilities in June 2025, targeting Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. Iran suspended IAEA inspector access following the strikes. Since March 2026, cameras at all major sites are offline, and the current status of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile cannot be independently verified by any outside party.
What is the IRGC Quds Force?
The Quds Force is the extraterritorial operations division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, responsible for funding, arming, and directing all Axis of Resistance proxy groups. Its commander, General Zahedi, was killed by Israel in Damascus on April 1, 2024, directly triggering Operation True Promise nine days later.
Why did Assad’s fall matter for Iran’s proxy network?
The collapse of Assad’s Syrian government in December 2024 closed Iran’s primary land corridor for supplying Hezbollah with weapons via Syria. Without this route, Iran lost its most reliable physical resupply line to its most powerful proxy, accelerating Hezbollah’s operational degradation after its severe 2024 losses.
